Antonelli edges Russell for F1 2026’s Best qualifying average lead after Sepang

A single-position swing at the top was enough: Andrea Kimi Antonelli moved to P1 on mean qualifying position after out-qualifying George Russell in Malaysia. The numbers are razor-tight — both Mercedes drivers sit on 3.31 — so each session now has outsized weight.

By Elena Marsh

Who leads the Best qualifying average ranking after the Bahrain Grand Prix in Malaysia?

The Best qualifying average ranking has a new leader after round 16 at Sepang: Andrea Kimi Antonelli has moved from P2 to P1, displacing previous leader George Russell. It is as fine a margin as this metric can produce on paper, with both Mercedes drivers listed on the same 3.31 mean qualifying position, leaving the official order decided by the tie-break the ranking uses.

That change was driven by a clear qualifying-session contrast in Kuala Lumpur. Antonelli qualified 4th while Russell qualified 8th, and that single session moved the season-long average just enough for Antonelli to take the top spot. With 16 races completed and the methodology using the full qualifying field rather than just the top 10, this is the kind of swing that can reshape the top of a “consistency over time” ranking.

What did Sepang reveal in the Mercedes qualifying head-to-head?

The simplest reading is also the most important: Mercedes produced a decisive internal qualifying split, 4th versus 8th, and that mattered because the ranking is literally the mean position across every qualifying session entered. Antonelli didn’t need a pole-chasing weekend to gain; he needed a cleanly better qualifying result than the driver he was already directly compared against in the standings.

Race outcomes underlined how differently the weekend landed, even if this metric ignores Sundays. Antonelli started 3rd and finished 2nd with 18 points over 55 laps, while Russell started 7th and was classified Retired after 49 laps with 0 points. That doesn’t feed into Best qualifying average, but it does add context to why the P1/P2 swap matters: when the averages are identical at 3.31, the ranking is effectively tracking who is giving themselves the better platform more often — and this round was a decisive tick in Antonelli’s direction.

How close is the battle behind the top two on qualifying average?

Lewis Hamilton remains third on 4.25, which keeps him the nearest non-Mercedes challenger by this measure. The gap from 3.31 to 4.25 shows that while the very top has tightened to a tie on the displayed average, the next step down is still meaningful — and it frames why Antonelli versus Russell has become the ranking’s defining duel at this stage of the season.

Elsewhere in the movers list, the shifts were modest but still telling. Max Verstappen improved from P7 to P6 on a 5.27 average, and Gabriel Bortoleto went from P14 to P13 on 12.63. With the maximum movement magnitude this round being only 1 place, Sepang didn’t rewrite the whole order — it refined it, with incremental gains becoming valuable because the methodology won’t exclude lower-field qualifying positions.

Which small changes could matter most as the season continues?

In a ranking that requires drivers to have entered at least 3 qualifying sessions and uses every session equally, the most important takeaway from Sepang is how quickly one weekend can flip a close fight. When P1 and P2 are both displayed at 3.31, every 4th-versus-8th split is effectively a lever on the season narrative of who qualifies best on average.

The mid-table movements hint at the same dynamic. Verstappen’s move to P6 at 5.27 and Bortoleto’s to P13 at 12.63 are only single-step gains, but they demonstrate that sustained, slightly better Saturdays can add up — particularly when the round’s overall churn was minimal. Sepang also offered a reminder of qualifying’s separate reality: Verstappen converted pole into victory, an example of how the front-row baseline can translate when everything else aligns, even though this ranking is strictly about the qualifying ledger.

Before & after positions

DriverTeamBeforeAfterΔValue
Andrea Kimi AntonelliMercedes21+13.31
Max VerstappenRed Bull76+15.27
Gabriel BortoletoAudi1413+112.63

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What this means

With Antonelli and Russell both sitting on a displayed 3.31, the Best qualifying average lead is effectively a session-by-session scrap: one clear intra-team qualifying win can swing P1. Hamilton staying third on 4.25 keeps the pressure on the Mercedes duo, while Verstappen and Bortoleto’s one-place gains show how much value there is in stacking small qualifying improvements when the standings barely move.